APSUP-03: JB-GPT's AI TUTOR— Drone Ascendancy in the 2023 Ukraine-Russia War

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• Preferred use references from: https://www.jb-gpt-prompts.com/jb-gpts-military-references

• If additional references are used, they must be drawn from reputable and scholarly sources. These may include academic publications, books from established historians, official government documents, respected think tanks, and recognized academic institutions such as leading universities.

• For follow-up question:

• Provide 5 (or change number) numbered key points (40–60 words each), with author, book title, and chapter.

• Add a separate Harvard-style bibliography.

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Follow-Up Questions (Delete those you don't use, or create your own e.g,, expand on key point four).

01. How has Ukraine’s integration of AI-guided and swarming drones shifted traditional concepts of battlefield dominance and attrition?
02. In what ways does the decentralized production and open-source innovation of drones enhance Ukraine’s strategic resilience?
03. What are the broader implications of Ukraine’s drone warfare model for future NATO and non-state military doctrines?

Drone Ascendancy in the 2023 Ukraine-Russia War

Overview
As of 27 June 2025, drones have transformed the Ukraine-Russia war into a benchmark for next-generation warfare. Ukraine’s integration of swarming FPV drones, AI-guided loitering munitions, and jet-powered UAVs has leveled the strategic imbalance against Russia’s larger forces. Russia, in turn, has adapted by enhancing Iranian-made Shahed drones, deploying fiber-optic-controlled systems immune to jamming, and launching retaliatory drone offensives. This AI prompt explores the operational, strategic, and technological dynamics of drone warfare on the eastern front, examining both state-led innovation and non-traditional industrial mobilization.

Glossary of Terms

1. FPV Drone: A first-person view drone piloted using live camera feed, primarily for close-in attack roles.

2. Loitering Munition: A UAV capable of hovering and independently selecting or receiving orders to strike a target.

3. Shahed-136: Iranian-supplied kamikaze drone deployed extensively by Russian forces.

4. UJ-25 Skyline: Jet-powered loitering munition developed by Ukraine for long-range strikes.

5. Electronic Warfare (EW): Military use of electromagnetic spectrum to disrupt enemy systems.

6. Gogol-M Drone: AI-guided Ukrainian drone with autonomous strike capability.

7. Dragon Drone: Ukrainian-designed incendiary FPV drone used for thermite dispersal.

8. Unmanned Systems Forces: Ukraine's newly established military branch dedicated to drone warfare.

9. Fiber-Optic Drone: A UAV connected to its controller by physical cable, rendering it unjammable.

10. Swarm Tactics: The deployment of multiple drones in coordinated operations to overwhelm defenses.

Key Points

1. Mass Production as Strategic Equalizer Ukraine aims to produce 4.5 million drones in 2025 to overwhelm Russian defenses, spanning FPV quadcopters to AI-guided munitions. This scale bridges the conventional force imbalance with low-cost, precision-targeted attrition weapons. (Harrel, 2025, Ch. 18; Celander, 2024, Ch. 14)

2. Operation Spiderweb and Strategic Targeting On 1 June 2025, Ukraine launched 117 drones against Russian airbases in a coordinated saturation strike, destroying 13 military aircraft. This demonstrated the effectiveness of synchronized swarm attacks at operational depth. (Harrel, 2025, Ch. 18)

3. Russian Response with Jam-Proof Systems In response to Ukrainian EW capabilities, Russia deployed fiber-optic-controlled drones immune to signal jamming, signaling a shift toward hybrid analogue-electronic systems for assured control. (Rogers, 2024, Ch. 20)

4. Emergence of AI-Powered Munitions Ukraine’s Gogol-M drone illustrates the maturation of autonomous systems. AI facilitates real-time target identification and engagement without live operator input. (Harrel, 2025, Ch. 18; Rogers, 2024, Ch. 16)

5. Civil-Military Tech Integration Ukraine’s civil drone sector transitioned to wartime production through government-supported partnerships, leveraging innovation from recreational drone industries to supply military demand. (Celander, 2024, Ch. 15)

6. Specialization in Tactical Effects Ukraine has fielded specialized drones like the Dragon, designed for thermite dispersal over entrenched Russian positions, expanding tactical options beyond simple explosive strikes. (Celander, 2024, Ch. 5)

7. Russian Adaptation of Iranian Drones Russia’s use of Shahed-136 drones evolved with enhanced AI guidance and counter-jamming features, making them a persistent threat to Ukrainian infrastructure and logistics. (Rogers, 2024, Ch. 20)

8. Ukraine’s Strategic Innovation with the UJ-25 Skyline The domestically developed UJ-25 Skyline represents Ukraine’s move toward long-range autonomous strike capability, matching or surpassing foreign platforms. (Celander, 2024, Ch. 15)

9. Creation of the Unmanned Systems Forces Ukraine established a dedicated branch for unmanned systems, reflecting the institutionalization of drone warfare as a standalone combat domain. (Harrel, 2025, Ch. 18)

10. Swarm Warfare Redefines Battlefield Geometry Drone swarms have transformed engagement ranges, saturation attack thresholds, and defensive doctrines. Tactical density, not just accuracy, now defines battlefield lethality. (Boyle, 2020, Ch. 3; Rogers, 2024, Ch. 23)

11. Counter-Drone Development Intensifies Both Russia and Ukraine have escalated investments in anti-drone systems, including EW shields, radar-guided interceptors, and UAV-on-UAV combat modules. (Rogers, 2024, Ch. 27; Celander, 2024, Ch. 10)

12. Psychological and Strategic Impacts Drones exert a psychological toll through their constant presence, eroding morale and complicating logistics, particularly in contested urban areas like Avdiivka. (Phelps, 2021, Ch. 2)

13. Decentralized Drone Manufacture Ukrainian volunteer groups and small firms now build operational drones using open-source designs, democratizing military-industrial capacity and enabling strategic resilience. (Cronin, 2019, Ch. 8)

14. Tactical Evolution from ISR to Precision Lethality What began as surveillance platforms have become strike instruments. This shift reflects doctrinal rethinking of drones as first-strike, not support, assets. (Boyle, 2020, Ch. 1; Kreps, 2016, Ch. 2)

15. Global Implications and Exportability of the Model The Ukraine model—civil innovation, mass deployment, strategic effect—is already influencing NATO and non-state actor doctrine, signaling a new phase in drone warfare’s diffusion. (Rogers, 2024, Ch. 28)

Bibliography

1. Harrel, J.S. (2025) The Russian-Ukrainian War 2023: A Second Year of Hell and the Dawn of Drone Warfare, Pen & Sword. Ch. 18: Ukrainian Strategic Drone Campaign — Strategic overview of Ukraine’s 2023–25 drone operations.

2. Celander, L. (2024) How Drones Fight: How Small Drones Are Revolutionizing Warfare, Casemate. Ch. 5, 10, 14–15 — Tactical drone usage, countermeasures, and Ukraine-Russia campaign specifics.

3. Rogers, J.P. (Ed.) (2024) De Gruyter Handbook of Drone Warfare, De Gruyter. Ch. 16, 20, 23, 27–28 — Russian drone technology, swarming, counter-UAS developments, global diffusion.

4. Boyle, M. (2020) The Drone Age: How Drone Technology Will Change War and Peace, Oxford. Ch. 1, 3 — Doctrinal shifts from ISR to strike, evolving use in modern conflict.

5. Phelps, W. (2021) On Killing Remotely: The Psychology of Killing with Drones, Little Brown. Ch. 2 — The psychological dimensions of remote and persistent drone threats.

6. Cronin, A.K. (2019) Power to the People: How Open Technological Innovation is Arming Tomorrow’s Terrorists, Oxford. Ch. 8 — Civilian innovation networks enabling military capability.

7. Kreps, S.E. (2016) Drones: What Everyone Needs to Know, Oxford. Ch. 2 — Overview of armed drone technologies and proliferation.